Rating of Ukrainian politicians before voting (research)

An American company Political Consulting Group (PCG) conducted an independent study prior to the presidential election in Ukraine. According to the results, four leaders of the presidential race are Yulia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, Svyatoslav Vakarchuk and Vitaliy Skotsyk.

The results of the research conducted by the international authoritative publication differ significantly from the results of Ukrainian, often paid, surveys. Among the five leaders, three politicians can be called "new faces" - Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, Volodymyr Zelensky and the leader of the "Agrarian Party" Vitaliy Skotsik. The presence of the first two personalities in the rating is not a surprise. However, 7.3% for Vitaliy Skotsik was unexpected. Yulia Tymoshenko with 11% of the voters’ support leads the rating. The second place in the rating is occupied by the current President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, with 9.4%. According to the research, the error is not more than 2%, and the electoral distance between the candidates is 3%. It means that any of the candidates will be able to outrun others during the pre-election race.

Yulia Tymoshenko is the leader of the “Fatherland” political party and the "old-timer" of Ukrainian politics. Prime Minister of Ukraine in 2005, 2007-2010. In 2011, Yulia Tymoshenko was convicted for 2009 "gas contracts" and sentenced to 7 years. She was also suspected of stealing budget money with Pavel Lazarenko.

Petro Poroshenko is the current President of Ukraine, the leader of the PPB party (Petro Poroshenko Bloc), and a co-founder of the Party of Regions. He won in the 2014 elections with 54.7% of the vote. A billionaire, owner of "Roshen” confectionery company.

Svyatoslav Vakarchuk is a singer and a leader of the legendary group "Okean Elzy". He was a deputy in 2007-2008.

Vitaliy Skotsyk is the chairman of the Agrarian Party, elected in 2014. In the past, he was the General Manager of American Machinery Company (AMAKO) and Landkom International.

Volodymyr Zelensky is a Ukrainian showman and comedian. In 2011-2012 he was a chief producer at the "Inter" TV channel.

In addition to the overall rating, PCG has published more detailed ones. In particular, a so-called "anti-rating". It appears that Ukrainians mostly don't trust the "old politicians". People distrust Petro Poroshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko and Arseniy Yatsenyuk most. Not far behind them are Oleg Tyagnibok and Oleg Lyashko. For the top five "leaders", the rating of distrust does not fall below 30%. Instead, the new faces - Svyatoslav Vakarchuk and Vitaliy Skotsyk - have the lowest anti-rating. According to the research, they are not trusted by only 21% and 11% respectively. The data confirms that people want new faces in Ukrainian politics today.

Voters' sympathies also differ depending on their age. The poll leader Yulia Tymoshenko has the highest level of support among older respondents - 58%. At the same time, the youth almost doesn't support the leader of the "Fatherland" (15%). Petro Poroshenko's situation is somewhat better. He is supported by 54% of older respondents and 32% of those aged 35 to 50, although he doesn’t have much support from youth as well, which can be attributed to the low level of trust for "old politicians".

The youth and middle class trust the new faces most. Vitaliy Skotsyk and Svyatoslav Vakarchuk have the highest level of youth support - 34% and 38% respectively. Middle-aged voters prefer Vitaly Skotsyk, which may be explained by his experience in top management - something Svyatoslav Vakarchuk and Volodymyr Zelensky don’t have.

Electoral preferences are also different in the regions. According to PCG, Petro Poroshenko leads in three regions of Ukraine (West, Center, South), and Yulia Tymoshenko - in two (North and East). However, taking to account the high percentage (28.2) of those who have not yet decided and the level of the "old politicians’" anti-rating (47.4 for Petro Poroshenko and 39.8 for Yulia Tymoshenko), one might say that Vitaliy Skotsik and Svyatoslav Vakarchuk will have many opportunities. In particular, Vitaliy Skotsik is among the top five in all regions except the North, supported by young and middle-aged people, which provides a reserve for the growth of the rating. Svyatoslav Vakarchuk has a high level of support in all regions except the East. See infographics for more:

People’s request for "new faces" might be reflected in Ukrainian politics during the 2019 election but it should not be forgotten that there is still a lot of time, and new politicians have a positive dynamic in the growth of electoral support.

The survey was conducted among the population of Ukraine aged over 18 using a face-to-face method during the April 23th-29^th period. A sample - 8,000 respondents. The error is no more than 2%. The poll results are as of April 2018.